As I begin this essay, on 14 March 2020, we are in the midst of the unfolding COVID-19 pandemic. Over the last few weeks, we’ve seen the stock market dive 30% over a two-fold uncertainty—uncertainty over the health impact of the virus and its global economic impact. Every day we’ve been treated to numerous press conferences from all levels of government as well as a string of breathless announcements from the press about shut downs, shut ins and near constant significant news updates. I live in what has quickly become the “hot spot” of cases in Pennsylvania, resulting in a near total shut down of business and civic activities, as well as run on toilet paper that I just don’t understand.
As we have watched sections of China, then South Korea, then Iran, then Italy, then Spain spike in cases and undertake draconian measures to slow the spread of the virus, I have gotten increasingly queasy about the probability that we, the US, are next. As testing becomes more available, the number of known cases of infection is going to shoot up and panic will only increase. Being a bit of a history buff, I am drawn to discussions of what History can teach us. As expected, there has been no shortage of parallels drawn with past events. There’s the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918; more recent “novel” virus outbreaks likes SARS, MERS, Swine Flu, Ebola; and, of course, comparisons to how previous administrations have handled a range of crises.
One must choose ones sources carefully, however, when using history to inform our present thinking. A friend of mine recently turned me onto the daily blog of Heather Cox Richardson, a political historian and professor of history at Boston College. I knew I’d like her when I read the “About” page on her blog, linked to above, in which she uses one of my favorite quotes: “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” This quote, attributed to Mark Twain, reminds us that we can learn from history—but we must be careful to remember that circumstances never completely replicate themselves. You must put the lessons of history in critical context with today’s situation. Prof. Richardson brings in many lessons from the past in her daily review of events, which can be comforting or frightening depending on the situation. Her writing has also driven me to think about something else: the difficulty of putting today’s events into any confident context while events are still unfolding.
This situation allows me to use an excerpt I’ve been saving from Philip Roth’s The Plot Against America. From the moment I read this paragraph, and underlined it, I knew there would be an essay in which I could use it! It is one of those passages that you read and think, “Wow, that is so true! But I’ve never thought about it that way before!” Herewith, that selection:
“Turned wrong way round, the relentless unforeseen was what we schoolchildren studied as “History,” harmless history, where everything unexpected in its own time is chronicled on the page as inevitable. The terror of the unforeseen is what the science of history hides, turning disaster into an epic.”
I have now lived long enough to see how crazy current events are treated by historical retrospection. I remember the chaos of the morning of 9/11/2001. We did not know or understand from one minute to the next what was happening! We just stood in front of the TV at work, numbly watching the horrific scene, reeling as information came pouring in over time. Over the succeeding weeks, months and years, a lot came to light about what led up to that horrible day as well as decisions that were made afterwards. Whenever there is temptation to yell, “How could they NOT have seen that?!” or “How could they have made THAT decision?!” I try to remember the chaos, confusion and utter helplessness of that day and time. It’s easy to look backward and calmly put the pieces together. When you are going through it, though, nothing is clear.
Part of what makes us nuts right now is constant “arm chair quarterbacking” about whether or not this crisis is being handled appropriately—or even whether or not it is a crisis at all. I have another “crisis memory”—the years leading up to 2000, forever referred to as Y2K. Most of my readers will remember this time, but a few may be too young. The concern was that the date in most computer code in everything from banking to control of the electrical grid was expressed with two digits for the year. What would happen to time- and date-dependent tasks when the year rolled from 99 to 00? Visions of a digital Armageddon circulated for a few years as companies pumped millions of dollars into analyzing and updating code to use a four digit year within dates. Come January 1, 2000, there were some small blips but no major crises. IMMEDIATELY there were pundits saying that this “crisis” was way overblown and millions of dollars were wasted. However, maybe crisis was averted because we invested so much time and money.
We can’t run the appropriate control experiment to know for sure. Just like we can’t go back and NOT implement Roosevelt’s New Deal, or NOT implement the plans the Obama administration executed in response to the Great Recession. We cannot say for sure that a different course of action would have had a better or worse result. Not that that stops pundits from trying. And it’s very easy to cherry pick historical information to support your thesis, extrapolating from kernels of truth to assumptions that are risky at best and outright wrong at worst.
So what do we do during a time of uncertainty such as we find ourselves in today? Well, here is what I’d like to see from others and what I try to hold to myself. First, always try to remember at any given point in time what you know, what you don’t know, and if possible what you don’t know you don’t know. And remember that there is a time vector to information—what you know changes constantly, including false information that pops up only to be corrected later. Because of this ever-changing information environment, stay humble and be transparent. State what you know and what you don’t. Explain what information you have used to arrive at your conclusions and actions. You can express competence (if you are in a visible role) without saying you have everything under control. And for goodness sakes, don’t promise what you can’t deliver.
Second, remember that actions and opinions can and will change as more information becomes available. Stay open to changing your position based on new data and own that change. It is not a failing to change your position based on new information. It is also not unreasonable to prepare for the worst while hoping for the best. It IS unreasonable to lose sight of facts and go overboard about protecting yourself to the detriment of others. If you need to stockpile 96 rolls of toilet paper for a possible 2-4 week quarantine, I think you have other issues.
Third, give yourself and others some grace. We all have different situations, different risk tolerances and different experiences that may cause us to make different decisions. But remember, also, how actions will affect others. If schools are shut down, remember that there are kids who depend on school lunches and breakfasts. If small businesses close, remember that many hourly employees will end up going without a paycheck—and these are often the people who can least afford to miss one. Think actions through and mitigate impact. If your tolerance for risk is high, remember those around you who may be immunocompromised or have to tend to someone who is in a high risk group. Don’t belittle someone else’s fear; don’t sneer at someone else’s unconcern.
When this is all said and done and history has had its say, it is certain that some decisions will have been wrong and some will have been right. Some of them may have just been dumb luck considering how little was known at the time. Don’t heap blame or praise on the decisions themselves. Focus on the decision process itself: how was information gathered and how were decisions made? How quickly did response change based on new knowledge? How well was information communicated? We can learn a lot more from that than on our opinions about whether or not the decisions were “good”.
Take a deep breath. Focus on the bigger picture. And be safe out there!