As we navigate through the stages of this pandemic, I’ve noticed a recent shift in discussion on the news shows.  They are clearly showing the strain of finding new topics to discuss, but this is a good one:  As  states and municipalities slowly relax stay-at-home orders (except here), people are asking, “Which of the changes we’ve had to make through this time of shut down are actually going to stick?”  Studies on “change creation” indicate that it takes, typically, 6-8 weeks of dedicated practice of a new habit for that change to become permanent.  Those studies don’t typically talk about that “dedication” being forced upon you, but the outcome is the same.  We’ve been “shut in” long enough, now, for some of the changes we’ve made to our daily lives to become permanent—if we choose.  Noodling on this concept has gotten me thinking a lot about the process of change.  (Needed disclaimer:  as with many of the concepts I write about, this topic could be a few PhD theses, none of which will be mine.  Much has been written on the topics of change management and change creation.  I am presenting only my own poorly researched observations.)

There are a lot of common sayings regarding change:  “Necessity is the mother of invention” (attributed to Proverbs); “The only thing constant in life is change” (attributed to Heraclitus); and “You go first” (OK, that one is mine).  Change is around us all the time, yet it is human nature to resist change—even change that would be considered in our best interest.  It’s not so much that we think that what we have is good enough or preferable.  It’s just what we know and whatever this “change” is, it’s something we don’t know.  That brings to mind another saying: “The devil you know is better than the devil you don’t” (another Proverb).  A great example of that is the computer I am typing on right now.  This Lenovo laptop is probably 5-6 years old.  In “computer years” that’s about 90.  It’s heavy.  It’s wonky.  The battery power sucks.  It can take forever to boot up.  Occasionally, a demon takes the thing over and I have to remove the battery to kill it. Now, I have enough money to buy a new laptop.   I am no technophobe; it’s not a big deal to me to switch over to a new system.  Why don’t I do it?  Well, there’s my well documented tendency to procrastinate.  There’s the fact that Trish keeps telling me I should get a new computer, which creates immediate resistance.  More than anything, though, I don’t do it because while there are things about this laptop that bug me, they don’t bug me enough that I feel the unknowns associated with getting a new computer are worth the aggravation and risk.  I know it will be better “on the other side”.  I just don’t want to go through the tangle of the change.

Let’s take a bigger, more critical issue for this nation: healthcare.  (Yes, I am going there.)  It is well documented that we spend more per capita on healthcare for worse outcomes than any other developed nation.  We are spectacular at expensive, heroic emergency care yet horrible at preventive care.  Our system of hundreds of different healthcare providers has led to an explosion of administrative costs relative to patient-facing costs.  And, of course, there are millions of Americans (27.5 million in 2018, about 8.5% of the population) without any health insurance at all.  Of those who have it, about 2/3 have private insurance, either through their employer or the commercial market and the other third are on programs like Medicare and Medicaid.  The one thing in common?  Most everyone complains about whatever healthcare system they have.  They complain about out-of-pocket costs.  They complain about availability.  They complain about the bureaucracy and red tape to get things done.  You’d think people would be clambering for some sort of change that would make healthcare simpler, less expensive, and more effective.  (DISCLAIMER: I am not endorsing any particular solution this problem.  I have my opinions, but I will keep them to myself.)  There are people truly suffering out there!  “Medical bankruptcy” is a real thing, for one, and lack of access to good care literally kills.  Why aren’t more people agitating for change?  Because for the vast majority of people, the system they have is good enough based on what they expect from it.  “The Devil You Know.”  When will change happen?  One way is when a critical mass of people are so horrifically underserved by the current system that only change is acceptable.  That’s what’s known as a “revolution”.  And it’s quite rare (and often bloody) for change to happen via revolution.  The other way is for leaders to show courage and compassion and press for change in the face of resistance.  Yes, it has happened.

During my work years I took many a course on “change management”.  I know all about the 20/30/50 rule: whenever you are trying to drive change, 20% of the people will be with you from the beginning; 30% will never accept the change fully; 50% are watching you and waiting for you to convince them to join the 20% or the 30%.  (Our natural tendency is to focus attention on the vocal negative 30% instead of the silent, convince-able 50%.)   There is another piece to change “creation”, though, that I’ve never heard discussed in these corporate settings—probably because it would make people too uncomfortable.  I have found that to move people to a particular change, you have to first propose something so out there and so unfathomable that the change you really want sounds reasonable in comparison.  Think about how merchants often present pricing on their products:  “You’ve seen cookware sets like this sell for $100, $200, or even $300!  But we will send you our outstanding set for the low, low price of only $40 (plus shipping and handling)!”  As you were watching the commercial, you may have been thinking “I’d pay $20 for that.”  If they had thrown out that $40 price tag, you’d think “no way!”  But by setting out that multi-$100 comparison, the $40 looks like a bargain.  We, um, used to do a version of this in setting customers’ price expectations for new products.  We never intended for them to pay the top price.  But the “middle” price, our real target, would have looked too expensive without it.

Creating organizational and cultural change is frankly no different.  That’s why negotiations never begin with what you really want to get.  And it’s why us more moderate thinkers need to be grateful for the radical fringes.  They push the boundaries of broad thinking so far out there that the more moderate changes we advocate for look reasonable.  Without that “out there” agitating, any change would seem “too much”.  Each time we achieve a moderate change, we need to push those edges out again.  That’s how progress happens.  Move the needle.  Get comfortable.  Have people that make you uncomfortable again.  Move the needle.  Think about the social and regulatory changes that have happened just over the last half century that are now the lowest level of acceptability but that were unthinkable not too long ago.  Want to go back to polluted drinking water and air that makes you choke?  Fifty years ago, that’s just how it was and any regulatory laws to change it were considered business-killing.  Guess what?  Businesses innovated, the air and water cleared, and those same businesses are more successful than ever.  “Necessity is the mother of invention.” Want invention?  Create necessity.  (Yes, I know regulations can go too far.  See last time’s essay on Balance for thoughts on that.)

So how does all this rambling about “change” relate to what we’re going through today?  We are navigating a huge disruption right now.  We’ve been shut in for a couple of months where I live and we have at least another few weeks to go.  And nothing facilitates “change” like disruption.  We have been forced to change how we do a lot of things out of necessity.  More people are working from home.  There is more of an emphasis on distance learning.  Both my Mom and I have learned how to use Zoom.  People are using online shopping for things they never did before, like groceries.  People have been starting up new businesses to support the needs of homebound customers.  This disruption has driven a lot of change, but most of that change has been around adoption of capabilities that were already there.  Telemedicine, as an example, has been around for a while.  But it has become more of a norm now that people have learned to navigate it.  I anticipate it will stay high on the menu of choices of consuming medical care. 

Some changes will stick, some will not.  We will almost certainly think about our lives “before COVID-19” and “after COVID-19”.  We are at an inflection point.  This is where real progress can be made.  Give some thought to what you’ve learned about yourself during this pandemic and which of these changes you want to make permanent. What have I learned?  I’ve learned that there are some changes that I fiercely do NOT want to stick.  I have learned how much I miss giving my Mom a hug.  I miss workouts and casual lunches with my bestie.  I miss the communal groan in a spin class when the instructor tells us to do something we don’t want to do and then we all do it anyway and share the joy of a tough workout.  I miss in-person connection and will work hard to remember to value community.  We’ve all stretched ourselves throughout this time.  Let’s make sure it was worth it.