When I was a kid, my Dad taught me to play chess.  I only realize now, in my late 50’s, what incredible perseverance my Dad had.  I couldn’t have been more than 6 or 8 when he taught me and I doubt I had much patience with the game.  He seemed to agonize over which move he would make.  I did not.  Or at least not at first.  However, learning to play chess was worth the effort.  Chess is a wonderful metaphor for decision making in general.  More specifically, for the importance of thinking through the consequences of your decisions as well as “thinking several moves ahead” of your current position.

As many of you know, I grew up in Atlanta, Georgia, which has a storied history with kudzu.  Kudzu is a vine native to Japan that was introduced in the US at the Philadelphia Centennial Exposition in 1876.  It was soon brought to the south as an ornamental vine to shade porches and backyards.  The big purple flower just added to the appeal.  Kudzu proved to be a hardy, fast growing vine.  Since Southern farmers had just about thoroughly depleted the soil by growing so much cotton, the government decided to push kudzu planting to stem major soil erosion.  What could go wrong?

What went wrong is that kudzu quite literally took over the South. The Atlanta of my youth was one big kudzu covered mound.  No one apparently voiced concern that kudzu was not native to the area, so the natural forces that kept it in check might not be there.  The vine was uncontrollable, even choking out forests.  By the mid-70’s, kudzu covered 7 million acres of land in the south.  In recent years, the effort has focused on eradication—everything from herbicides to goats to another Japanese import, Megacopta cribraria, a bug that’s been chomping its way through kudzu growth since it landed accidently (probably through the airport) around 2009—and, yes, we don’t know yet what else it might chomp through.  (Thank you to the Atlanta Journal Constitution for these fun kudzu facts.)

My point is this:  no one took the time, back in 1876 when it was first brought over, or in the 1930’s and ‘40s when kudzu was purposely introduced to control erosion, to ask the question about what might happen next.  Examples abound in our casual abuse of nature, since she has had about 4 billion years to evolve a beautiful balance and we seem to be able to upset that balance in decades or less.  But there are plenty of other examples of not thinking a few steps ahead across our lives.

Let’s take active involvement in deposing a horrible dictator, like Sadam Hussein or Mummar Khadafi.  Both were horrible, violent rulers.  Few in our society could argue that they should be stopped.  However, in both Iraq and Libya, where the US was either very publicly or more covertly involved in removing those dictators, the aftermath was a mess.  Why?  Because as horrible strong men, they kept their countries together by force.  In the absence of that force, there was a vacuum of control and violent civil wars ensued.  Let’s remember that these areas are tribal lands and have been for thousands of years before the winners of WWII drew “country” boundaries. Allegiances were always more to the tribe than to the country as a whole.  While this probable outcome was no surprise to many who understand these lands and people, there was still very little effort put into the “post-deposition” plan.  Tens or hundreds of thousands of people died.  It’s important to think a few steps ahead.

There are many examples each one of you could think of in your workplaces or in your home life.  How about the very common situation of a company needing to reduce costs to improve profitability?  While I would love to get on my soapbox about “you can’t save your way to profitability,” cost reduction schemes often get companies a quick boost on Wall Street.  I’ve been through those discussions about who loses their jobs (the only real way to save quick bucks).  You can’t just pick off the biggest salaries or the people least likely to sue.  You must think through how a person fits into the organization, the skills they bring (both technical and personal), who depends on their output, who can pick up the slack or how you can make the work go away.  I say “you must” but we all know that rarely happens effectively or at all.  And even if you try, there are always consequences you can’t effectively mitigate.  However, most of the time, managers don’t think several steps ahead and the consequences can be disastrous and long lasting.

Another common situation is how people choose a car.  I want that sleek looking coupe!  Too bad I didn’t think about how to get a car seat in the back or, even worse, how my elderly Mom is going to get in and out of the front seat (or her walker not fitting in the non-existent trunk).  Then there are the people who really, really, really want to drive a luxury car but can’t afford to buy a new one.  They are focused on their monthly car payment, so they either buy a used car or lease one.  What they often don’t think about is the cost to insure a luxury car vs. a more modest vehicle.  Or the cost to maintain or repair one.  Or even the need to use premium fuel vs. 87 octane.  I applaud those that think about the full cost of ownership.  I also know you are rare.

Just as it is critically important to ask five successive “why” questions when trying to identify a real root cause problem, it is equally important to ask a few successive “what” questions when thinking about the consequences of a decision or action.  Ask yourself: “If I make this decision, what do I expect to happen, both good and bad?”  What steps could you take to mitigate the bad things that might happen and what other things might THOSE actions cause?  Go down a few levels.  Then try that with a different decision.  Think a few steps ahead, just like you would in a chess game.  What seems like a good move at first can be disastrous.  And what seems like a wimpy move could end up leading you to win the game.

There’s a bit of a thought flow developing here.  First we discussed identifying the REAL problem you are trying to solve.  Today we discussed thinking through the consequences of your decision to help choose the most favorable path.  Coming up is a more thorough treatment of “consequences”, leading to one of my favorite topics (OK, it’s more of a hot button)—taking personal responsibility for your actions.  Stay tuned!